From the great prognosticators of inclement weather, we get these two headline stories.
Warm Winter Predicted For United States
ScienceDaily (Oct. 11, 2007) NOAA forecasters are calling for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across already drought-stricken parts of the Southwest and Southeast in its winter outlook for the United States, announced at the 2007-2008 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference in Washington, D.C October 9, 2007.
The reason for this warm forcast?
“La Niña is here, with a weak-to-moderate event likely to persist through the winter,” said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Just 6 months later, we see this story:
Coolest Winter Since 2001 For U.S., Globe, According To NOAA Data
ScienceDaily (Mar. 15, 2008 ) The average temperature across both the contiguous U.S. and the globe during climatological winter (December 2007-February 2008 ) was the coolest since 2001, according to scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In terms of winter precipitation, Pacific storms, bringing heavy precipitation to large parts of the West, produced high snowpack that will provide welcome runoff this spring.
So what happened to that weak to moderate La Nina?
The presence of a moderate-to-strong La Niña contributed to an average temperature that was the coolest since the La Niña episode of 2000-2001.
Amazing what 6 months will do to a forcast. But rest assured, these guys know for certain what the climate will be like in 50 years.
Sources:
National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (2007, October 11). Warm Winter Predicted For United States. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 24, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2007/10/071010131931.htm
National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (2008, March 15). Coolest Winter Since 2001 For U.S., Globe, According To NOAA Data. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 24, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2008/03/080314175834.htm
Quote from your website:
“Amazing what 6 months will do to a forcast. But rest assured, these guys know for certain what the climate will be like in 50 years.”
Your conclusion should have been:
“So what can we do to make forecasting more reliable – whether on annual or decadal timescales-, we’ll depend on it”
By: Matt on May 14, 2008
at 3:33 am
Hi Matt and thanks for the comment.
Your suggestion is noted and I agree that we should be seeking better models and more reliable forcasts, ones that we can rely on with some confidence.
Given that we don’t have that level of sophistication, I am still concerned that people put too much faith in predictions or forecasts or scenarios that are not supportable with the current tools. The sad fact is that while we observe temperatures going up and down, many of the modelers still cling to a warming-only dogma, leading to my comment that while they can’t reliably forcast the next few months or years, they KNOW what it will be like 50 years from now.
By: John Nicklin on May 14, 2008
at 6:57 am
A couple of other sources showed that it was a colder winter than what NOAA thinks.
Such as MSU UAH and RSS to name a couple.
By: sunsettommy on May 16, 2008
at 6:51 pm